COVID-19 in SA: When exactly should we expect the third wave?

At this point, there are more questions than answers as to when the next surge of COVID-19 infections is expected in South Africa. With the second wave of cases nearing the end, it is only a matter of time before the country sees another dramatic spike in the daily infection rate. Initially, there was little to no talk of a third wave, but health experts have advised that it is approaching and we must be ready for it. Health Minister Dr Zweli Mkhize has acknowledged that it may not be easy to forecast when exactly the third wave of COVID-19 cases will strike, but said current projections point to between April and May 2021.

Mkhize addressed a dialogue, together with the National Press Club and hosted by Government Communications (GCIS) on Thursday, 4 March 2021.

“We need to understand that while we may not be able to predict accurately when the next surge is coming, it may well come when we have huge movement of people coming during the public meetings, or during the Easter weekend or during the Easter holidays when people are moving up and down. That might have an impact as well. We will be observing to see what is happening at that time,” he said.

Zweli Mkhize: ‘We can delay the next wave of COVID-19’

Health Minister Zweli Mkhize has also said that as government, they are pinning their hopes on the COVID-19 vaccine to finally see the end of the global pandemic. They intend to administer COVID-19 vaccines to about 40 million South Africans by the end of 2021, or slightly beyond.

Mkhize has emphasised the importance of sticking to the necessary COVID-19 preventative guidelines, adding that such could even help delay the third wave.

“We think that the reduction in the numbers in the last wave, was actually because of the extent at which people were using masks and so on. If we can keep it like that, we believe we can delay the next wave but there is suspicion that we probably might end up with another wave late April, May or so, but there is no clear model that tells us that,” he said.

So far, the country has recorded well over 1,5 million cases of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic.