Lockdown latest: The factors that could push us back to Level 5

The truly frustrating thing about living life according to a sliding lockdown scale is that, no matter what you do individually, factors outside of your personal control could bring us all back to ‘square one’ – or should that be ‘Level 5’? Because it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that South Africa could, at some point, be sent back to the start.

Granted, this is a much less likely outcome than moving to an ‘easier going’ Level 3 next. But even when we reach this point, the spectre of Level 5 will never really be dismissed until the global health crisis has been crushed in South Africa. We are living with social distancing and quarantine protocols for some while yet.

What could push South Africa back towards Level 5?

There are essentially two factors that could put Mzansi back in its hardest form of lockdown: One is the collective behaviour of our people: If an overwhelming number of citizens decide to flout all directives and stage some sort of soft rebellion against the rules of socialising and staying home, that’d alert the police minister.

Bheki Cele has been more than happy to flex his muscle over the past six weeks or so. His views on alcohol and civil disobedience have been magnified by the lockdown. When people gathered en masse to exercise at beachfront promenades last Friday, Cele reminded the nation that a sliding scale goes both ways…

“What we see already is that it won’t be difficult to go back to [level] 5. The things we have seen today, it’s beginning to edge us [back to level 5]. We’ve seen people swimming; swimming is prohibited. South Africans are not taking the matter seriously. They will force the government to be more tough and rigid”.

Bheki Cele

Bad behaviour, spiked infection rates could derail progress

However, the bogeyman of booze would need something a little more substantial than this to plead the case for Level 5. By a large majority, millions of South Africans continue to behave themselves and adhere to the laws of Level 4. There’d need to be a huge display of civil unrest before we could slide backward.

The second factor to consider is the numbers game. Just as we heard the trade ministry say on Friday that Level 3 could be reached ‘sooner rather than later’ if infections don’t rise dramatically, their statement was made only a few days after the opposite notion was proposed by COGTA Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

“If the numbers [of infections] go up, we go back to Level 5. So it’s all in our hands South Africans, whether we stick to what we do, so we must make the choice ourselves.”

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma

Interestingly, NDZ still attributed a crumb of social responsibility to the infection rates. Level 4 of lockdown allows thousands more people to return to work, and many South Africans will take their daily morning exercise window just to break up the monotony of being housebound.

Numbers of new cases are likely to rise by default, even if every single one of us displays exemplary behaviour. The government, despite their tough talk, is fully aware of this. Dlamini-Zuma and her colleagues could only take us back to Level 5 if there was an absolute explosion of the disease.

When could Level 5 of lockdown possibly be re-introduced?

Cases are currently going up by 300 – 450 each day. We’d need to see that figure increase significantly before it could be argued that retreating to the hardest form of lockdown is necessary. But perhaps, even further down the line, this won’t be the only factor to consider.

South Africa may even reach Level 2 or Level 1 – the softest stages – and then decide to revert back to Level 5, should the infection data suddenly spike beyond all admissable boundaries. A surprise skyrocket of cases towards the later stages may influence the powers that be to immediately try and starve the disease of human hosts after coming so far. However, we’ve now strayed into territory even beyond the hypothetical.

The truth is, there isn’t a great deal of difference between Level 4 and Level 5 of lockdown. If anything, the hardest stage came with the strongest public buy-in: The first few weeks will always be met with an eagerness to exercise good citizenry. Add a few more weeks, and a few after that, and compliance can be strained.

Level 3 is ‘much more likely’ to come next

Peter Attard Montalto, an analyst for Intellidex, told BusinessTech this week that he and his colleagues fear a “forceful crackdown by the police” in the weeks to come. Quite simply, law enforcement officials enjoyed much more calm on the streets during the previous lockdown level. Montalto argues that Level 5 could return if attitudes sour and the authorities need to re-establish an element of ‘total control’.

So either huge rises in infections, civil disobedience, or a mixture of both have the power to push South Africa back to the very beginning. And that threat exists at all levels of lockdown. Government ministers have been the first to entertain the idea of regressing by a stage. But, as we stated earlier, this isn’t the most likely outcome.

Businesses need to reopen at some point. Livelihoods must be salvaged. And, although human life takes prevalence, the pressure on the economy has to be relieved. The odds are massively in SA’s favour to move forward – but we are certainly not free of the threat of taking a step backwards instead.