Coronavirus: Comparing SA’s cases with Italy, China and other hot-spots

SA has entered its third week of the coronavirus crisis. Ever since the first positive case on South African soil was detected earlier this month, the country has been coming to terms with the “new normal”. The disease was initially picked-up in Gauteng and KZN, after a travelling party returned to Mzansi from Italy.

The European country has been decimated by coronavirus, recording the highest death toll of anywhere else in the world – including that of the epicentre in China.

Coronavirus cases in South Africa

Travel bans, social distancing and limits on recreational activities have all been introduced by the South African government, as the desperate fight to contain the outbreak rumbles on. But, at the advent of week three, how does South Africa compare to some of the worst-affected countries?

We’ve looked at the number of cases each country has reported over the past six weeks, to better understand how Mzansi shapes up against other crisis-hit nations: Here’s what we need to know…

Most coronavirus cases and deaths by country:

Country	Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Deaths
China	571	7 711	28 018	58 761	74 576	78 497	3 261
Italy	3	229	2 026	9 172	27 980	53 579	4 825
USA	15	53	100	704	4 663	24 207	348
Spain	2	3	120	1 231	9 942	25 496	1 381
Germany	16	18	165	1 224	7 272	22 364	84
Iran	2	61	1 500	7 161	14 991	20 610	1 556
France	12	14	191	1 784	7 730	14 459	562
S. Africa	3	240	~500 (forecast)	–	–	–	None

Mapping the COVID-19 outbreak

The outbreak in China began properly in January, with the first 571 cases being reported over the course of seven days. Their cases – and deaths soared – before the rates of new patients gradually tailed off.

Italy, however, hasn’t enjoyed the same ‘cooling-off’ period China saw in week six. The country is seeing cases spiral as the days go by, and they have the highest mortality rate of coronavirus in the world. South Africa may not be in this territory at the moment, but one particular stat is very alarming.

How does South Africa compare to Italy, China and other hot-spots?

Our numbers for the end of week two are only beaten by China. At a comparative level, South Africa has an almost-identical number to the disease-ravaged Italy, and it even dwarfs projections from countries where coronavirus is now booming.

South Africa does have its mortality rate to cling to, at least for the moment: As we enter week three of our COVID-19 response, there have been no deaths to report. But this is likely to change over the coming days.

• All data taken from Worldometer.