Mmusi Maimane’s new political party: Pros, cons and who could join him

There is very much life after DA for Mmusi Maimane. The recently-ousted frontman departed under a cloud of acrimony, as the second-biggest political party in South Africa hit the self-destruct button in October. However, the dust has all but settled on this particular chapter, which begs the question: What next for the former opposition leader?

Well, it would seem that he’s ready to go his own way. As he departed the Blues, Maimane gave a cheerful outlook on his future – while taking a parting shot at his former employers. He said that he would be leading “a new political vehicle” which focuses on racial transformation and social justice.

Mmusi Maimane’s new political party: How new organisations fare

But, as a few famous faces have learned, forming your own political movement is easier said than done. Hlaudi Motsoeneng was just one of the high-profile names who crashed and burned in the 2019 Elections. His African Content Movement performed terribly at the ballot boxes. But that’s Hlaudi. Maimane is likely to judge himself against how other politicians have fared on their own.

Makhosi Khoza was heralded as the darling of the ANC’s anti-state capture faction. Her decision to walk away from the party in the final days of Zuma was, at the time, heralded as a masterstroke. But her attempts to lead the African Democratic Movement for Change took just months to unravel. She’s currently out of the political arena altogether.

However, like it or lump it, politicians who enjoy a strong core supporter base tend to do well early on once they’ve formed a party. Both Patricia de Lille (Good) and Jimmy Manyi (African Transformation Movement) rode the crest of a wave this year when they left for their new political ventures. Both parties are now represented in Parliament.

What Mmusi Maimane must improve upon

What Maimane will need is a clear message: 48 political parties contested at the last general election, and 13 of them made it to the National Assembly. There are a lot of overlapping voices amongst the noise. Whether it was due to the friction between him and senior members of the DA, Maimane faced criticism for not bringing enough clarity to party policy. That’s something he needs to fix immediately.

Without having to toe the DA’s line, we could learn so much more about Mmusi Maimane’s political identity. Occupying the centre-ground can be dangerously misleading. But voters who had previously been conflicted over backing the DA to vote for Maimane will be guaranteed a new political home. The question is, just how much of the electorate does that apply to – and who can he take with him?

Could DA members leave for a new party?

One would expect Herman Mashaba to feature in some form of Maimane-led political organisation. The former Johannesburg Mayor is politically homeless, after resigning from his role four weeks ago. The pair enjoy immense popularity in Joburg, and would likely seek the base of their support from the sprawling metro.

But will anyone defect from the DA to join this new project? When de Lille left the organisation, she brought five members of the party with her to Good. But Mmusi could struggle to have the same impact: DA Northern Cape leader and staunch Maimane ally Andrew Louw has already ruled out a partnership with the 39-year-old.

Maimane’s replacement, John Steenhuisen, enjoys an immense amount of popularity within the DA’s structures. That was rammed home by his victory in the interim leadership race on Sunday, gaining almost three times more votes than Makashule Gana received. Helen Zille’s return to the party did spark a mini-exodus already, but there’s no guarantee the likes of Athol Trollip will immediately run to Maimane.

Another DA MP who spoke to IOL suggested that “there would be no huge changes” either way. But as Mmusi Maimane calculates the best time to strike, he needs to establish how much of an appetite South Africa has left for him.