Gauteng nightmare: Why Thursday could be the DA’s darkest day

The biggest opposition party in South Africa have been on the ropes for the best part of 2019. It has been a year of turmoil, underperformance and scandal. Granted, they aren’t the only political organisation that’s in crisis, but they could quite easily become the worst-affected by the end of the day – it’s Battleground Gauteng, and the odds aren’t in their favour for key votes in Johannesburg and Tshwane.

Herman Mashaba’s replacement will be announced pending a vote in JHB, whereas a motion of no confidence has put suspended mayor Stevens Mokgalapa on the brink in the Pretoria-based metro.

Johannesburg mayor vote – will the DA lose control?

From what we can gather, the DA are outsiders in both races. Despite being chosen to lead a coalition government in Joburg three years ago, the Blues hold fewer seats than their ANC counterparts. It was only an anti-Jacob Zuma pact with the EFF that handed them control of the biggest city in the country.

The Red Berets are less likely to be kingmakers on Thursday, as they’re fielding their own candidate. Musi Novela is hoping to become the first-ever EFF leader of a major metro. Julius Malema insists his comrades are ready to govern, but he’s also not ruling out the possibility of a deal with other parties.

Juju suggested last week that his party could enter a pact with anyone who backed their candidate for Johannesburg. In return, they would work in coalition with either the ANC or the DA. If Novela ends up running the city, the EFF would then agree to prop-up any government arranged in Tshwane by either of the two parties mentioned. Gauteng is very much open for negotiations.

Which party is most likely to win Tshwane?

The DA may well want to consider the offer at hand. To lose one metro would be devastating, but two in a day is unprecedented outside of a municipal election. Not only are they losing their grip on Johannesburg, but forfeiting power in Tshwane is looking more like a formality with each passing hour.

That’s because both the ANC and EFF submitted a motion of no confidence against Mokgalapa this week. The two groups are determined to see the back of the representative. After being embroiled in a sex scandal, the DA suspended the mayor and replaced him with Abel Tau earlier this morning. His reign as mayor could be the shortest on record, as he may only last a few hours.

Gauteng could go the same way as Nelson Mandela Bay for the DA

With both the Red Berets and the ANC wanting him gone, the likelihood of them forming an alliance is sky-high. Unless the DA back the EFF in Johannesburg, they could be left holding just one metro (Cape Town) by the close of business on Thursday. As recently as September 2018, they held four.

The first domino in the chain collapsed 14 months ago. The DA, who held a flimsy grip on Nelson Mandela Bay due to their tiny majority, were tripped-up when one councillor quit the party and voted to boot Athol Trollip out of office last year. A new government was formed, placing the UDM’s Mongameli Bobani in charge.

Those spectacular in-roads the DA fought so hard to carve in 2016 have essentially been shut-down. The tumultuous leadership battles and underwhelming electoral results have put the party on the back-foot, and they are staring down the barrel of one of their darkest days.