POLL | ANC on course to lose ‘enormous chunk’ of voters in 2021 Elections

Data released by IPSOS this month has shown us exactly what the South African public intends to do for the 2021 Elections. The ballot, which will see voters choose who they want in local and municipal government, officially opens on Monday 1 November – but the ANC may now be dreading that date.

Figures comparing their previous support to what the ruling party would receive if the vote happened today are startling. In 2019, the ANC comfortably enjoyed the backing of 55% of all South Africans. That waned to 51.8% in a survey conducted in 2020, and a little under a year later, that number has nosedived further.

2021 Elections: Latest opinion polls

According to IPSOS, just 34.9% of the general public now say they would back the ANC in the 2021 Elections. That’s a disastrous number for a party that has dominated SA’s political scene for the past 27 years.

Various failures on ending corruption, providing service delivery, and ensuring the safety and security of South Africans have all played a part in recording these shock numbers. However, it doesn’t seem like this data from the opinion polls will necessarily give the likes of the DA or the EFF much of an advantage.

Bad news for the ANC? How South Africans will vote at the 2021 Elections…

The official opposition party has seen its own support base plummet, flirting with single figures in the past few years. Around one in eight South Africans say they would vote for the DA this year – down from the one in five who cast their vote for the Blues at the most recent National Election.

The EFF also looks like it will be stuck in limbo, with around 10% of respondents saying they will give their ‘X’ to the Red Berets. In fact, the ANC’s biggest enemy could be voter apathy. Over 29% of those asked were either ‘uninterested, untrusting, or unconvinced to vote’ in the 2021 Elections.

Photo: IPSOS

‘Guaranteed voters only’: A tale of two polls for ANC…

The poll featured takes into account how the general public says they *would vote*. However, not all of the respondents confirmed that they *will vote* in the upcoming ballot. A separate survey, which only accounted for those definitely taking part in the democratic process in November, looks much more favourable for the ANC.

Just under 50% of people adamant they will vote in the 2021 Elections will back the 112-year-old organisation. The figures also look better for the DA and EFF, who poll at 17.9% and 14.5% respectively. Around 7.5% of people did not reveal how they would vote on the big day, meaning these numbers are likely to be under-representative of final totals.

Either way, a noticeable decline is on the cards for the ANC, and with the party now polling at under 50%, it is enough to set the alarm bells ringing for Cyril Ramaphosa and his comrades.