ANC heading for ‘shambolic’ poll numbers in 2021 Local Elections

A storm of stomach-churning proportions is set to descend upon Luthuli House in the coming months, after the ANC failed to register candidates for the 2021 Local Elections in DOZENS of municipalities.

ANC poll numbers for 2021 Local Elections under threat

Their bid to retain an overall majority of the vote share is now in trouble, and if the ANC is unsuccessful in getting the IEC to reopen the registration process for them, the polling numbers could be extremely damaging for the ruling party.

Opposition outfits, in all regions where the ANC hasn’t fielded someone to govern, will now be gifted an unprecedented opportunity to gain power in strategic locations. Here are the numbers that have rattled the 109-year-old organisation.

• There are a total of 278 municipalities in South Africa, split between ‘local, district, and metropolitan’.
• The ANC has failed to register candidates for 35 of these municipalities, missing the IEC deadline this week.
• That would leave the ruling party without a candidate in roughly ONE IN EIGHT municipalities.
• The missing field (12.5% of all municipalities) *might* drag their vote share below the 50% mark.
• In 2016, they picked up 53.9% of all votes – losing some key metros and districts in the process.
• Despite targeting 55% of the vote for the 2021 Local Elections, it now seems they will fall WAY SHORT of this.

Less than 50% of votes? ConCourt has a decision to make…

There is, however, some hope left for the ANC. But they need the rub of the green and the goodwill of the Constitutional Court to help them. If ConCourt does decide to postpone the 2021 Local Elections this year due to COVID-19, another registration process is likely to be introduced, allowing them to reinstate candidates in key wards.

However, lawmakers have a political fireball on their hands, here. Any decision which could be perceived as ‘benefiting’ the ANC is unlikely to play out well with a voting public – likewise, they cannot be seen to be ‘punishing’ the party. Whatever verdict is handed down, you can expect fierce and vocal challenges from select benches of Parliament.