Turning the tide? Four positives from Monday’s COVID-19 numbers

South Africa’s grim battle with COVID-19 has been an unpleasant exercise in survival and suffering. A traumatised nation has been forced to stay indoors, with family and friends remaining isolated from each other in order to limit new cases. So when there is even a whiff of positive news, it’s something we should all take heart from.

COVID-19 – latest numbers and updates

Monday’s COVID-19 statistics – despite announcing a further 173 deaths – also came with some very encouraging data on new cases: Using this measure helps us determine how rampant the disease is.

After ravaging South Africa throughout July, August could see a peak of infections hit South Africa even harder. But, for those desperately seeking some optimism, it seems we’ve had an improved start to the month:

COVID-19 data: Four positive developments for South Africa

A six-week low for new cases

Only 5 377 cases were reported on Monday evening, marking the lowest daily number since 23 June. Although this number is expected to rise again by Wednesday (due to the way data is collected in SA), this is a marked improvement on anything we’ve seen in the past 42 days.

Cumulative weekend data

A simple comparison of this weekend’s data vs what we saw last weekend shows that things may be heading in the direction, even if the journey has been arduous so far:

Comparative weekend data by cases:

• Saturday 1 August: 10 107
• Sunday 2 August: 8 195
• Monday 3 August: 5 377
• Total cases for this weekend: 23 679

• Saturday 25 July: 12 204
• Sunday 26 July: 11 233
• Monday 27 July: 7 096
• Total cases for last weekend: 30 533

The first three days of August vs the last three days of July

Working out the three-day average can provide us with a better evaluation of how case numbers are performing. The 24-hour updates perhaps don’t always tell a full story. But what is noticeable is that South Africa is starting August much better than it finished July:

• Daily average of new cases for 1-3 August: 7 892
• Daily average of new cases for 29-31 July: 11 140

Visible progress for each day of the week

Comparing a Monday to a Sunday, or Friday to a Thursday, might not give us the scope of the progress we’re looking for. Using the seven-day comparative figures (comparing this Monday to last Monday, for example) provides a weekly snapshot of where South Africa is at. Indeed, we have visible improvements for every day of the week – and this Monday’s death toll has dropped substantially from what we saw eight days ago.

Last week’s dates	Cases	Most recent dates	Cases	Seven-day comparison
Monday 27 July	7 096	Monday 3 August	5 377	Cases down by 1 719
Sunday 26 July	11 233	Sunday 2 August	8 195	Cases down by 3 038
Saturday 25 July	12 204	Saturday 1 August	10 107	Cases down by 2 093
Friday 24 July	13 944	Friday 31 July	11 014	Cases down by 2 930
Thursday 23 July	13 104	Thursday 30 July	11 046	Cases down by 2 058
Wednesday 22 July	13 150	Wednesday 29 July	11 362	Cases down by 1 788
Tuesday 21 July	8 170	Tuesday 28 July	7 232	Cases down by 938

• All information and data collected from SACoronavirus