Why 1.5 million? The grave maths behind the ‘mass graves’ in Gauteng

Gauteng’s alleged preparation of 1.5 million ‘mass graves’ to combat COVID-19 has sparked a flood of controversy on Thursday. The regional government seems to be at odds with their national counterparts, as multiple questions have been raised about the sheer bleakness of their response to this crisis.

Plans for mass graves cause outrage

Bandile Masuku is the Health MEC for Gauteng. This week, he revealed that the mass graves were “an emergency measure” if the worst-case scenario became a reality, adamant that their decision was rational:

“We’re preparing over 1.5 million grave sites and it’s an uncomfortable discussion. As a medical practitioner, it becomes… not something of my great topics but it’s the reality we need to do here. We need to be prepared. The preparation of mass graves is an emergency measure to contend with a COVID-19 catastrophe.”

Bandile Masuku

The Gauteng health department, meanwhile, has backtracked on the number of graves dug for COVID-19. Despite claims made by Masuku, the province now says it does not have over a million already open dug graves. Apparently, the figure instead refers to the collective capacity municipalities can take.

However, the political opposition in the province won’t let this one fly. Jack Bloom is the Shadow Health MEC for Gauteng, and the DA representative has slammed his opponent for “causing a needless panic”.

“Gauteng Health MEC Bandile Masuku needs to clarify his remarks yesterday that his department is ‘preparing over 1.5 million grave sites’ for the COVID-19 crisis. Mass burials may need to happen at a certain stage of the epidemic, but it is unlikely that these would exceed one hundred even on the worst days.

“We have to remember there is a large number of asymptomic cases, too. Whilst it is prudent to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, Masuku’s comments are causing needless panic and should be withdrawn.”

Jack Bloom

Grave maths and mass graves in Gauteng

Bloom has highlighted a number of factors that he and the DA believe simply do not believe add-up:

Global death toll: The entire number of deaths worldwide is about 550 000 – making it hard to explain why three times as many burial plots would have been needed in Gauteng.

Uneven fatality rates: There have been 478 deaths so far in Gauteng out of 75 015 cases – a fatality rate of just 0.64%, which is in line with global trends and doesn’t indicate that a million graves will be needed here.

Age considerations: Fatality rates are much higher in the older population. Yet the median age of Gauteng’s 15.7 million people is 27, with 81% of the population aged under 44.

Grave practicalities: An adult’s grave must measure 2 300 mm in length and 900 mm in width and 2000 mm in depth. If you multiply that by 1.5 million, it would require an unholy amount of work and excavation to prepare.

Latest COVID-19 news and updates for Gauteng

Meanwhile, as infections continue to soar in Gauteng, six members of their leading health team have tested positive for coronavirus on Thursday. The ‘war room’ staff will now enter a period of self-isolation.

. @GautengHealth has confirmed that six members of the Gauteng Health COVID-19 War Room have tested positive for #Covid19 -Among those positive includes the Head of the Department, Prof Mkhululi Lukhele.

— Yusuf Abramjee (@Abramjee) July 9, 2020