Zweli Mkhize: Prolonged lockdown won’t delay the peak
Back in March, the mission outlined by government and specifically Health Minister Zweli Mkhize was clear: flatten the curve.
That meant that by staying indoors and limiting the interaction of the populous, the rate of infection would be spread out over a longer period of time, giving the fragile health care system a chance to ensure that it was prepared for an inevitable influx of cases.
Two months later, and it would appear as though those efforts have reaped rewards, with hospitals able to cope with the rate of COVID-19 related admissions. Now Mkhize is wondering how much of a difference prolonging the lockdown will make.
The purpose of a prolonged lockdown
Mkhize raised an interesting point on Wednesday 6 May, tweeting that prolonging the lockdown further would not have a substantial impact on the anticipated peak of infection.
“Life is complex,” he said. “In terms of our scientific focus, we were able to push the peak. If we were to prolong the lockdown, it would not have delayed the peak substantially.”
“We have seen the numbers increasing. We said that many of us will get the infection. Our role has been to slow down the rate at which the infection gets to us.”
The “peak” refers to the apex of the curve model graph representing the exponential rate of infections. On the x-axis, infections, on the y-axis, time. He posits that at this stage, applying social distancing and lockdown measures would not necessarily have a significant impact on the peak’s expected date of arrival.
“We must be able to maintain a balance. It is a battle we face every day. COVID-19 may be here for another two years.”
Economy ailing
Lockdown measures do have an impact on the economy’s chances of survival though.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARS) on Tuesday 5 May announced a projected annual revenue shortfall of R285 billion as a result of businesses being prohibited from operating and the ban on certain goods like cigarettes and booze.
They also said that between three and six million jobs could be lost as a result of the lockdown, leading to a spike in unemployment up to as much as 40%.
With only 411 people hospitalised in the country as on 2 May 2020, translating to approximately 5% of all COVID-19 confirmed patients, the question must be asked how much more prepared the health care system could be to combat the potentially deadly effects of the virus.
“Our health workers are like soldiers who go to war. They must be well trained, well armed and well protected,” said Mkhize. “We want them to be confident that they are well trained, that they understand how they don’t get infected, and how they protect others.”
“At the end of the day, everything is about people. It is only when our people are healthy, that we will have a thriving economy. Improving our economy starts with the good health of our people. Good nutrition, hygiene and sanitation are at the core of our people being healthy.”
South Africa has also used the lockdown period to ensure the procurement of thousands of articles of personal protective equipment (PPE) that will be necessary for the long-term fight against the virus. Donations and deals have been brokered through diplomatic ties with China as well as through donations from private parties.
“We can now spot where the problems are coming from. We have learned lessons from other countries & we have an advantage.”
Time to open up?
In March, Mkhize opined that the virus is likely to infect around 70% of the South African population at one time or another, and the suggestion that the virus will be around for the next few years has become more and more likely.
Is it therefore time to put trust in our health care system and open the economy further to allow for an economic recovery to begin in earnest?
President Cyril Ramaphosa has said that the current crisis is laying the foundations for the emergence of a better, more equal economy and society.
“In a way, COVID-19 gives us a way for a new beginning, a new beginning which is going to make us have a new way of doing things; new sectors of our economy [and] new ways of functioning.”
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