Local data and the China-US trade negotiations dominate movements in the ZAR

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Weaker than expected local data (consumer confidence and producer manufacturing data released on Tuesday) weighed down the Rand’s upward trend. This, together with the return of a bearish outlook on emerging markets (EM) caused the ZAR to trade mixed on Wednesday as renewed uncertainty regarding the outcome of trade talks between the US and China reared its head again.

This trend reversed on Thursday after China and the US indicated that they will look at phasing out trade tariffs. EM currencies buoyed as risk appetite returned to the markets. This caused the Rand to regain most of Wednesday’s losses, despite weak local data, specifically business confidence and manufacturing production data.

A mixed session on Friday then led to a return of positive sentiment as the US-China trade negotiations provided some positive feedback. This trend continued until yesterday.

The Rand weakened on the back of a stronger British Pound. This was mainly driven by British politics as the prospects for the current Brexit deal improved.

Market event calendar

Tuesday 12 November

• British unemployment data  

Wednesday 13 November

• British output and inflation data
• SA retail sales
• US inflation data

Thursday 14 November 

• SA mining and gold production
• British retail data
• US inflation data

Friday 15 November

• US import/export data