Home Forget cases, we’ve now got hospitalisations ‘peaking’ in Gauteng

Forget cases, we’ve now got hospitalisations ‘peaking’ in Gauteng

There are more encouraging signs coming out of Gauteng this weekend, and it’s something that goes far beyond the data on new Omicron cases. The rate of hospitalisations in the province have been gradually slowing down, suggesting that hospital admissions may soon follow a declining infection rate.

Omicron updates: Are hospitalisations peaking in Gauteng?

Cases already appear to have reached their highest daily numbers in Gauteng for the Omicron-fuelled fourth wave.

Over the last week, it’s been rather satisfying to see these figures drop, in the province where this new variant panic started. Sugan Naidoo, an SA data modeller, has charted how Gauteng’s hospitals are performing.

Things are certainly looking up. Two weeks ago, new hospitalisations had soared by over 300 people in one 24-hour cycle. But, in more recent days, the hospitalisation rafe has been in the low hundreds, or double figures.

Gauteng hospital figures, Monday 20 December

In fact, on Sunday, only one additional admission to hospital was recorded in Gauteng.

Hospitalisations set to follow cases in Omicron epicentre

Naidoo’s data seems to reflect the models also publised by University of Johannesburg research associate, Pieter Streicher. His research shows that hospitalisations could peak ‘as early as today or tomorrow’ – but there’s also a good chance the upper limit won’t actually be reached until after Christmas.

Nonetheless, Gauteng’s brief COVID-19 nightmare might be over before it has even started. Forecasts for ICU admissions, hospitalisations and the need for ventilators are all tracking BELOW the same intervals recorded during the Delta wave. And, what’s more, other provinces are also ‘turning the corner’ with Omicron.

Stock photo of a hospital corridor – Image: Canva

Going to plan?

There’s mounting evidence that the Omicron strain of the virus produces ‘milder outcomes’ than any other variant that came beforehand. However, it’s increased transmissibility means that some people will still be at risk coming down with a serious illness disease, especially if they remain unvaccinated.

  • Pieter Streicher, however, is delighted with the numbers witnessed in Gauteng.

“Cases are coming down rapidly. Hospital beds and ICU beds are peaking. Ventilated beds will peak a bit later, because some patients stay in hospital for a long time. All the projections continue to perform reasonably well, with actual numbers coming in below all projections.”

Pieter Streicher


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