Third wave update: Has Easter caused another COVID-19 resurgence?

For the past two months, South Africa’s recorded COVID-19 cases have stayed low. Since the peak of virus’ resurgence on 8 January 2021, things have been plummeting noticeably. However, upon the release of Thursday’s figures, we clocked something that’s not been seen in a long time – new cases have nearly doubled in 24 hours…

COVID-19 numbers for South Africa

As of Thursday 8 April, 1 366 new COVID-19 cases were detected in SA. This is also a slight uptick from last Thursday’s data, and represents the highest number this month. It usually takes two-to-three weeks to see if an increase in coronavirus cases translates into more hospitalisations and deaths, as fears of a third wave still remain prevalent.

However, the much-feared ‘Easter superspreader threat’ hasn’t yet surfaced. That could indeed change within the next few days, and more jumps in data – like the ones witnessed – yesterday would signal the start of something concerning. Having said that, none of us should be worried until the experts start to express some anxieties – which isn’t happening right now.

Third wave incoming? Not yet, it seems…

Dr. Keith Cloete, Western Cape Head of Health, assessed how the land lies one week after Good Friday. According to him, there have so far been ‘no cluster outbreaks in the Western Cape’. Several case spikes have been spotted on university campuses across South Africa, but Cloete doesn’t link this to the Easter break.

In his book, we will know by the middle of next week if a superspreader event has doomed us to an earlier ‘third wave’. But from what we can tell so far, the adjusted restrictions announced for the long weekend may just have done their job.

“The numbers are stable. You would’ve expected anybody that would’ve contracted Covid over the past weekend to have started showing symptoms… We would’ve had notification of clusters and an increase in cases…“

“There’s been no significant sign of cluster events emanating from the Easter weekend. By the middle of next week, it will be clear if Easter had superspreader events that put us at risk of an early third wave. We know we’re going to have one”