Matric results: Four revelations we can expect on Tuesday

With just one sleep left to go for our learners, the matric results for the Class of 2019 are set to be made public on Tuesday. On the eve of a momentous day, we’re taking a quick look at the expectations ahead of the release: There’s a good chance it could be a record-breaking day, but not every aspect will be for the right reasons:

Matric results for 2019 – what we can expect:

What will the pass rate be?

Although the official line from the Education Department is “no comment”, one source has suggested that the pass rate in South Africa will exceed 80% this year. That would be the first time this has ever happened, and it would surpass the historic year of 2013 when learners recorded the best-ever figures.

This pass rate can either be determined by looking at the number of learners who started Grade 1 and went on to complete school, or by using the official numbers which calculate the percentage of students who started Grade 10 two years, wrote matric, and passed. These are the figures to look out for.

• South Africa’s Grade 10 pass rate for 2018: 78.2%
• South Africa’s Grade 1 pass rate for 2018: 37.6%
• Percentage of Grade 10 starters who went on to pass their exams in 2018: 48.1%

Drop out rate

Despite the Education Department’s eagerness to champion any pass-rate improvements, critics of the government believe that these figures are tempered by the drop-out rates. Yusuf Cassim is the DA’s MEC for Education in the Eastern Cape, and he confirmed his branch are expecting bad news on Tuesday.

“We will be keeping a close eye on the high drop-out and low learner-retention rates in the province – especially in poor rural communities. To curb this scourge, schools must not only receive incentives for better matric results, incentives must also be provided for improved learner-retention rates as is done in the Western Cape.”

“In 2018 the Eastern Cape pass rate broke through the 70% threshold, but this wasn’t a true reflection of the results. Of the 148 346 learners in grade 10 in 2016, only 65 733 (44.3%) wrote the NSC in 2018 of which 46 393 passed.”

Yusuf Cassim

Matric results: Best and worst performing provinces

If you believe what you hear on the grapevine, then there could be something of a surprise in store when it comes to provincial rankings. According to City Press, Free State is set to leapfrog Gauteng as the top-performing region of South Africa, pushing a pass-rate of almost 90%.

On the flip-side, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape are the likeliest to battle it out for the wooden spoon. Both provinces are expected to achieve the lowest pass-rates, recording something in the region of 70 – 75%.

Best performing schools

In the battle for supremacy, we’ll also be casting an eye on which school performed the best in South Africa. Gradesmatch gave the title to Afrikaanse Hoer Mesieskool in Pretoria last year, after they recorded an impressive 3.5 distinctions per learner in 2018. They will have challengers from Cape Town, KZN and Johannesburg, though:

Top five matric results by school for 2018:

(Figures are calculated by average distinctions per learner, with at least 20 learners obtaining a distinction per school.)

1. Afrikaanse Hoer Mesieskool, Pretoria – 3.523 distinctions per learner.
2. Star College, Cape Town – 3.419 distinctions per learner.
3. Al-Falaah College, Durban – 3.414 distinctions per learner.
4. Inkamana School, Vryheid (KZN) – 3.381 distinctions per learner.
5. Holy Family College, Johannesburg – 2.871 distinctions per learner.*