Johannesburg Mayor vote: Which party is the most likely to win?

Herman Mashaba is officially on “out of office” mode. Wednesday is his last day as Johannesburg Mayor, and he’s doing the last of his goodbyes throughout the week. On Thursday, his successor will be decided. And it’s shaping up to be nothing short of a good, old-fashioned dogfight.

The DA, the EFF and the ANC all have horses in this particular race. However, the latter party is the only one who hasn’t confirmed their mayoral candidate yet. Funzela Ngobeni and Musi Novela are the respective DA and EFF representatives, but the balance of power has shifted dramatically in Johannesburg since 2016.

The next Johannesburg Mayor:

Who are the candidates?

• DA: Funzela Ngobeni – Touted as “Mashaba 2.0”, the Finance MMC and Regional Chairman has the experience.
• EFF: Musi Novela – Served as the party’s Johannesburg leader for the last six years, holds two diplomas.
• ANC: Geoff Makhubo (most likely) – The former treasurer of Johannesburg is the party’s front-runner.

How many votes does a party need to win the Johannesburg Mayor race?

We’re playing for a total of 270 seats. It will come down to a majority vote, so whoever can secure 136 votes or more will take control of the metro. Whoever wins will be aiming for the 150 mark, so their majority enjoys a little breathing space. The DA and EFF combined three years ago to form a coalition on 144 votes, and despite only taking 38% of the ballot, Herman Mashaba was installed as the mayor, ousting the ANC’s Parks Tau.

Which party is the most likely to win?

Well, the DA can no longer count on the EFF’s support, as they will field their own candidate. However, Julius Malema said last week that they will support any party who enters into a pact with them – should the Red Berets prop-up a regime in Johannesburg, they want that party to vote for them in Tshwane.

On paper, the ANC are in pole position to convince enough opposition politicians to back their government. They have backing from a number of minority parties, but may need to claim some EFF rebels before declaring themselves the winner. If the DA paired with every smaller party outside the “top three”, they would still be two seats shy of matching the ANC and therefore unable to pick the Johannesburg Mayor.

• ANC: 121
• DA: 104
• EFF: 30
• IFP: 5
• AIC: 4
• FF+: 1
• ACDP: 1
• Al-Jamah: 1
• UDM: 1
• Cope: 1
• Patriotic Alliance: 1
• Total number of seats: 270
• Total votes needed to win a majority: 136

Johannesburg Mayor: Can we expect any deals to be agreed?

As we’ve mentioned, the EFF have previously said there will be no coaliton agreements… unless their “Tshwane Ultimatum” is met. The IFP also holds a significant stake in the race, and it has been reported that the ANC want to convince them to break their agreement with the DA and join their side.

However, there are no indications that the fourth-most popular party in Johannesburg will ditch their partners on this one. It’s also possible we could end up with a “Nelson Mandela Bay” scenario, where the DA ended up with a majority of one seat – the flimsy balance of power caused chaos in the city, and once Athol Trollip was removed through a vote of no confidence, things have hit the skids in Port Elizabeth.